Agriculture has long been the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing nearly 20% to GDP and employing around 37% of the labor force, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2022–23. Punjab, known as the breadbasket of Pakistan, plays a dominant role in agricultural production. However, a troubling pattern of declining productivity, land use conversion, and climate stress is pushing the province—and the nation—toward a deeper economic crisis.
Falling Agricultural Yields in Punjab
Punjab accounts for over 70% of Pakistan’s wheat and rice production and nearly 60% of cotton, yet these staple crops have seen alarming declines in recent years.
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Wheat: The province failed to meet its wheat production target in 2023. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Punjab produced around 20.4 million tons of wheat in 2022–23, against a target of 21.2 million tons. Erratic weather, late sowing, and declining soil fertility have contributed to this shortfall.
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Cotton: Once a major export earner, Pakistan’s cotton output has collapsed from 14.1 million bales in 2004–05 to just 4.9 million bales in 2022–23, as per the Ministry of National Food Security and Research. Punjab’s cotton belt, especially in districts like Bahawalnagar, Vehari, and Multan, has shifted to sugarcane and maize due to poor cotton profitability and pest infestations.
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Rice: Punjab contributes around 60% of the country’s basmati rice. However, rice cultivation has suffered due to water scarcity and a shift to short-duration hybrid varieties that compromise soil health. In 2022, the Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC) noted a 10% decline in rice productivity compared to the previous year due to flooding and irregular monsoon patterns.
Urban Sprawl Eating Into Farmland
Perhaps the most overlooked factor in declining agriculture is the rampant conversion of fertile land into housing colonies.
Punjab accounts for over 70% of Pakistan’s wheat and rice production and nearly 60% of cotton, yet these staple crops have seen alarming declines in recent years.
According to the Punjab Urban Land Systems Enhancement (PULSE) project, over 472,000 acres of agricultural land have been converted into residential and commercial plots in Punjab over the past two decades. Cities like Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, and Gujranwala have expanded uncontrollably into peri-urban farmland.
This trend is particularly concerning in a food-insecure country. As landowners find it more profitable to sell land to developers than to grow crops on it, the loss of arable land becomes permanent. Moreover, unregulated housing schemes and land mafias continue to exploit legal loopholes, further exacerbating the issue.
Climate Change: A Multiplier of Agricultural Crisis
The erratic climate is no longer a looming threat—it is a lived reality. Punjab has witnessed increasingly unpredictable weather patterns: prolonged dry spells, untimely rains, and rising average temperatures.
A 2023 study by the Global Climate Risk Index ranked Pakistan among the top 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change. For Punjab’s farmers, this means:
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Shorter growing seasons: Rising temperatures accelerate crop cycles, leading to lower yields and poor grain quality.
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Water stress: Groundwater levels in southern and central Punjab have dropped by 3–5 meters over the last decade due to over-extraction, as per the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).
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Increased pest pressure: Warmer winters allow pests like whitefly and pink bollworm to survive through the year, particularly affecting cotton and vegetables.
The 2022 floods, which devastated parts of southern Punjab, submerged entire fields, damaged infrastructure, and caused direct losses estimated at $3.7 billion in agriculture, according to the World Bank.
The Farmer’s Crisis: Between Markets and Margins
Despite rising input costs, Punjab’s farmers are stuck with outdated market structures and a lack of support systems. Fertilizer prices have surged by more than 50% over the past two years, and diesel and electricity tariffs continue to rise, eating into profit margins.
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Subsidy inequality: While large landholders benefit from irrigation and equipment subsidies, small and medium farmers—who make up 89% of farm owners in Punjab—are often excluded or under-supported.
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Market manipulation: Middlemen (aarhtis) control access to markets and often buy crops at below-market rates. Even government procurement—like wheat support price—fails to reach many due to poor registration systems and limited storage infrastructure.
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Debt traps: In districts like Lodhran and Okara, many farmers have fallen into informal debt cycles, borrowing from local moneylenders at high interest to afford seasonal inputs. Suicides and rural distress remain underreported due to stigma.
Economic Implications for Pakistan
Pakistan’s trade deficit and inflation are deeply tied to agricultural performance. When wheat or cotton production falls short, the country is forced to import, putting pressure on foreign reserves.
In FY 2023, Pakistan imported $2.2 billion worth of wheat and $1.8 billion in raw cotton. This not only widens the current account deficit but also raises food inflation—already at over 30% year-on-year in April 2024 (PBS). Low agriculture output also affects allied industries like textile, food processing, and logistics, reducing employment and export revenue.
The Way Forward: Policy and Structural Shifts
To reverse this downward spiral, Punjab—and by extension, Pakistan—must treat agriculture as a strategic economic sector. Some steps include:
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Land-use regulation: Introduce strict zoning laws to prevent conversion of agricultural land into housing. A digital land registry system under the PULSE project must be implemented transparently.
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Climate-smart farming: Invest in heat- and drought-resilient seed varieties, and promote solar-powered irrigation to counter energy costs.
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Farmer cooperatives: Encourage the formation of farmer producer organizations (FPOs) that can directly access markets, credit, and inputs without middlemen.
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Subsidy reform: Redirect subsidies toward smallholders, especially women farmers, who are often excluded from land ownership and formal credit.
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Youth in farming: Revitalize agriculture education and incentivize young entrepreneurs to engage in agri-tech, organic farming, and precision agriculture.
